Vermont gubernatorial election, 2016

Vermont gubernatorial election, 2016
Vermont
November 8, 2016
 
Nominee Phil Scott Sue Minter
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 166,817 139,253
Percentage 52.0% 43.4%

Governor before election

Peter Shumlin
Democratic

 Elected Governor

Phil Scott
Republican

The 2016 Vermont gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2016 and elected the Governor of Vermont, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Democratic Governor Peter Shumlin had decided not to run for re-election to a fourth term in office.[1]

The primaries were held on August 9.[2] Former Vermont Department of Transportation Secretary Sue Minter won the Democratic nomination, and Lieutenant Governor Phil Scott won the Republican primary.[3] Republican Phil Scott defeated Democrat Sue Minter.

Background

Two-term Democratic Governor Peter Shumlin ran for re-election in 2014 and was widely expected to win easily. However, he only took a plurality of the vote, 46.36%, to Republican Scott Milne's 45.1%, and thus the result was decided by the Vermont General Assembly. The Assembly picked Shumlin by 110 votes to 69. Shumlin announced in June 2015 that he would not run for a fourth term.[4]

Vermont and New Hampshire are the only states in the country whose governors are elected every two years.

Democratic primary

In August, Vermont House Speaker Shap Smith announced that he would be a candidate,[5] but ended his candidacy in November 2015, after his wife was diagnosed with breast cancer.[6] In September, Matt Dunne announced that he would also be a candidate.[7] Also in September, former state legislator Sue Minter, then serving as Vermont's Secretary of Transportation, announced that she would resign her position in order to join the Democratic race.[8] Former Ambassador Peter Galbraith announced his candidacy in March 2016.[9]

In July, H. Brook Paige was excluded from official Democratic Party events after making derogatory comments on social media.[10]

Minter won the nomination decisively, and was endorsed by Dunne but not Galbraith.[11]

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Matt
Dunne		 Sue
Minter		 Peter
Galbraith		 Other/Undecided
Energy Independent Vermont June 26–29, 2016 217 ± 6.7% 31% 36% 8% 25%
Castleton Polling Institute February 3–17, 2016 895 ± 3.27% 19% 11% – 69%

Results

Democratic primary results[37]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Sue Minter 35,979 51.20
Democratic Matt Dunne 26,699 38.00
Democratic Peter Galbraith 6,616 9.40
Democratic Cris Ericson 538 0.80
Democratic H. Brooke Paige 387 0.60
Democratic Write-ins 579 1.84
Total votes 70,798 100.00

Republican primary

In September 2015, Lieutenant Governor Phil Scott entered the race,[38] and 2014 gubernatorial nominee Scott Milne, who had been considering running, endorsed Scott.[39] In October 2015, retired Wall Street executive Bruce Lisman officially announced his "outsider" candidacy.[40]

Scott was endorsed by most active Vermont Republican politicians, and held a strong lead in a February poll.[41][42] Lisman's campaign criticized Scott for being too closely connected to outgoing Democratic governor Peter Shumlin and for "plagiarizing" Lisman's ideas, and linked Scott to the "failures" of the Vermont Health Connect insurance platform and the school redistricting Act 46;[43][44][45] the candidates' campaigns disagreed over whether this constituted "negative campaigning," and Scott's campaign said the attacks were "patently false".[43]

Scott won the nomination by a large margin.[46]

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Endorsements

On May 6, 2016, Scott received the endorsements of all Vermont Republican legislators (listed above) except State Representatives Donald Turner, Doug Gage, Mary Morrissey, Job Tate, and Paul Dame.[67] Among those five legislators who did not endorse Scott, four said they always remain neutral in a party primary election, and one was waiting until after the filing deadline to make an endorsement.[68]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Phil
Scott		 Bruce
Lisman		 Other/Undecided
Energy Independent Vermont June 26–29, 2016 171 ± 7.5% 68% 23% 9%
Castleton Polling Institute February 3–17, 2016 895 ± 3.27% 42% 4% 53%

Results

Republican primary results[69]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Phil Scott 27,669 60.50
Republican Bruce Lisman 18,055 39.50
Republican Write-ins 48 0.22
Total votes 45,772 100

Liberty Union primary

Candidates

Declared

Results

Liberty Union primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Liberty Union Bill "Spaceman" Lee 6 100.00%
Liberty Union Write Ins 0 0.00%
Total votes 6 100%

General election

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Sue
Minter (D)		 Phil
Scott (R)		 Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey November 1–7, 2016 454 ± 4.6% 51% 47% — 2%
SurveyMonkey October 31–November 6, 2016 447 ± 4.6% 50% 48% — 2%
SurveyMonkey October 28–November 3, 2016 449 ± 4.6% 46% 51% — 3%
SurveyMonkey October 27–November 2, 2016 424 ± 4.6% 44% 53% — 3%
SurveyMonkey October 26–November 1, 2016 428 ± 4.6% 43% 54% — 3%
SurveyMonkey October 25–31, 2016 436 ± 4.6% 45% 52% — 3%
RRH Elections October 24–26, 2016 1,052 ± 3.0% 38% 45% 4% 13%
Braun Research/WCAX October 19–22, 2016 603 ± 4.0% 40% 47% 6% 9%
Castleton University - Vermont Public Radio September 29–October 14, 2016 579 ± 3.9% 38% 39% 7% 14%

References

  1. 1 2 3 Paul Heintz; Terri Hallenbeck (June 8, 2015). "Shumlin Announces He Won't Seek Reelection in 2016". Seven Days. Retrieved June 13, 2015.
  2. ↑ "Elections - Vermont Secretary of State". sec.state.vt.us. 2016-04-25. Retrieved 2016-05-27.
  3. ↑ Freese, Alicia; Hallenbeck, Terri (8 August 2016). "Live Coverage of the Vermont Primary Results". Seven Days. Retrieved 10 August 2016.
  4. ↑ "Shumlin decides against 2016 re-election bid". Burlington Free Press. June 8, 2015. Retrieved June 8, 2015.
  5. ↑ "Shap Smith wants to Succeed Peter Shumlin as next Vermont Governor". The Times Argus. Barre, VT. August 14, 2015.
  6. ↑ Burbank, April (November 17, 2015). "Shap Smith Suspends Campaign for Governor". Burlington Free Press. Burlington, VT.
  7. ↑ Gram, David (September 2, 2015). "Google Executive Matt Dunne Running for Vermont Governor". Portland Press Herald. Portland, ME. Associated Press.
  8. ↑ Hallenbeck, Terri (September 10, 2015). "Sue Minter to Run for Vermont Governor". Seven Days. Shelburne, VT.
  9. 1 2 Aloe, Jess (March 22, 2016). "Peter Galbraith announces bid for Vermont governor". Burlington Free Press. Retrieved April 14, 2016.
  10. ↑ Craven, Jasper (July 1, 2016). "Vermont Democratic Party bans gubernatorial candidate from events". VTDigger. Retrieved July 2, 2016.
  11. ↑ Johnson, Mark; Hewitt, Elizabeth; Faher, Mike (9 August 2016). "Minter cruises to Democratic nomination for governor". VTDigger. Retrieved 10 August 2016.
  12. ↑ Paris Achen (September 2, 2015). "Dunne announces run for governor". The Burlington Free Press. Retrieved October 1, 2015.
  13. ↑ "Voters to see familiar faces and new races". Rutland Herald. Retrieved 30 May 2016.
  14. 1 2 3 4 Paul Heintz (June 8, 2015). "Shumlin's Retirement Launches 2016 Gubernatorial Race". Seven Days. Retrieved June 13, 2015.
  15. 1 2 Terri Hallenbeck (September 10, 2015). "Sue Minter to Run for Vermont Governor". Seven Days (newspaper). Retrieved September 20, 2015.
  16. ↑ Josh O'Gorman (June 17, 2015). "Paige opens 2016 gubernatorial race". Rutland Herald. Retrieved June 25, 2015.
  17. ↑ Paris Achen (August 22, 2015). "Analysis: Should Shap step down as speaker?". Burlington Free Press. Retrieved August 22, 2015.
  18. ↑ Paris Achen (November 17, 2015). "Shap Smith Suspends His Bid for Governor". Seven Days. Retrieved November 17, 2015.
  19. ↑ NealGoswami (June 23, 2015). "Donovan to run for Attorney General again". Barre Montpelier Times Argus. Retrieved June 25, 2015.
  20. ↑ Paul Heintz (June 11, 2015). "Markowitz Won't Run for Governor". Seven Days. Retrieved June 13, 2015.
  21. 1 2 3 Terri Hallenbeck (September 21, 2015). "Doug Racine Won't Run for Gov, Backs Sue Minter". Seven Days. Retrieved October 1, 2015.
  22. ↑ Simone Pathé (June 26, 2015). "Vermont Rep. Welch Won't Run for Governor". Roll Call. Retrieved June 26, 2015.
  23. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 Craven, Jasper (7 July 2016). "Dunne picks up six dozen endorsements from lawmakers, past and present". VTDigger. Retrieved 10 July 2016.
  24. 1 2 3 "Matt Dunne for VT on Twitter". Twitter. June 7, 2016. Retrieved June 11, 2016.
  25. 1 2 3 4 5 6 True, Morgan; Craven, Jasper (Jun 7, 2016). "Dunne secures two major labor endorsements". VTDigger. Retrieved Jun 8, 2016.
  26. ↑ True, Morgan; Craven, Jasper (Aug 7, 2016). "Editorial: Dunne for Democratic gubernatorial nomination". Burlington Free Press. Retrieved Aug 2, 2016.
  27. ↑ Heintz, Paul (29 June 2016). "Truant Story: His Presidential Run Is Done, But Sanders Is Still Playing Hooky". Seven Days. Retrieved 30 June 2016.
  28. ↑ "Capital Beat: Let the endorsements roll in". Rutland Herald. December 13, 2015. Retrieved April 12, 2016.
  29. ↑ Heintz, Paul (Jul 28, 2016). "Howard Dean Endorses Sue Minter for Governor". Seven Days. Retrieved Jul 28, 2016.
  30. ↑ "Supporters: Rep. Jason Lorber". sueminter.com. Retrieved 2 June 2016.
  31. ↑ "McKibben endorses Dunne for governor". VTDigger. 2010-04-22. Retrieved 2016-05-21.
  32. ↑ Heintz, Paul (31 July 2016). "Environmentalist Bill McKibben Dumps Dunne for Minter". Seven Days. Retrieved 3 August 2016.
  33. 1 2 Burbank, April (2 August 2016). "Wind blows renewable energy advocates into Minter camp". Burlington Free Press. Retrieved 6 August 2016.
  34. ↑ Burbank, April (February 29, 2016). "Minter picks up endorsement from EMILY's List". The Burlington Free Press. Retrieved April 12, 2016.
  35. ↑ Hirschfeld, Peter (2 August 2016). "Minter Attracts Environmentalists After Dunne Backs Local Veto Power For Mountaintop Wind". Vermont Public Radio. Retrieved 6 August 2016.
  36. 1 2 "Scott, Minter, Brock and Smith". The Manchester Journal. 25 July 2016. Retrieved 27 July 2016.
  37. ↑ http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/governor/vermont
  38. ↑ Hallenbeck, Terri (Sep 7, 2015). "Phil Scott Says He Is Ready to Announce Run for Vermont Governor". Seven Days. Retrieved Jul 2, 2016.
  39. ↑ Hallenbeck, Terri (Sep 29, 2015). "Scott Milne Backs Phil Scott for Governor". Seven Days. Retrieved Jul 2, 2016.
  40. ↑ Dobbs, Taylor (19 October 2015). "Lisman Launches Outsider Campaign For Governor". Vermont Public Radio. Retrieved 21 May 2016.
  41. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 "Republican legislators endorse Phil Scott for governor". Vermont Business Magazine. May 6, 2016. Retrieved May 6, 2016.
  42. ↑ "Poll shows Scott leading in governor's race". Times Argus. 23 February 2016. Retrieved 2 July 2016.
  43. 1 2 Ogerman, Josh (5 June 2016). "Are some Vt. campaigns going negative?". Times Argus. Retrieved 2 July 2016.
  44. ↑ "Campaign strategies taking shape". Times Argus. 26 June 2016. Retrieved 2 July 2016.
  45. ↑ Hallenbeck, Terri (30 May 2016). "Lisman, Scott Campaigns Clash Over New Flier". Seven Days. Retrieved 2 July 2016.
  46. ↑ Burbank, April (9 August 2016). "Phil Scott claims GOP primary victory for governor". Burlington Free Press. Retrieved 10 August 2016.
  47. ↑ Kristin Kelly; Darren Perron (May 28, 2015). "Lt. Gov. Phil Scott weighs run for governor". WCAX-TV. Retrieved June 13, 2015.
  48. ↑ Terri Hallenbeck (September 8, 2015). "Scott Pins Gubernatorial Campaign on 'Fiscal Responsibility'". sevendaysvt.com. Retrieved September 8, 2015.
  49. ↑ Morgan True (September 1, 2015). "Lisman makes 2016 Republican gubernatorial bid official". VTDigger.org. Retrieved September 1, 2015.
  50. ↑ Paul Heintz (October 1, 2015). "Randy Brock to Run for Lieutenant Governor". Seven Days. Retrieved October 1, 2015.
  51. 1 2 Terri Hallenbeck (September 29, 2015). "Scott Milne Backs Phil Scott for Governor". Seven Days. Retrieved October 1, 2015.
  52. ↑ Bradley, Pat (September 15, 2015). "Former Governor Jim Douglas Discusses 2016 Republican Race For Vermont Governor". wamc. Retrieved May 3, 2016.
  53. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 "Randy Brock and 100 GOP Leaders Endorse Phil Scott". August 3, 2016. Retrieved August 3, 2016.
  54. ↑ "Douglas, Mazza support Scott for governor". vermontbiz. March 11, 2016. Retrieved May 3, 2016.
  55. ↑ Hirschfeld, Peter (August 31, 2015). "Update: Bruce Lisman Running For Governor As A Republican". Vermont Public Radio. Retrieved May 3, 2016.
  56. ↑ "Vermont Sheriffs' Association endorses Phil Scott for governor". Vermont Business Magazine. 2 August 2016. Retrieved 2 August 2016.
  57. ↑ "VADA endorses Phil Scott for governor". Vermont Business Magazine. 28 July 2016. Retrieved 7 August 2016.
  58. ↑ "Vermont Troopers Association Endorses Phil Scott for Governor". philscott.org. 20 October 2016. Retrieved 25 October 2016.
  59. ↑ "Vermont Police Association Endorse Phil Scott". philscott.org. 17 October 2016. Retrieved 25 October 2016.
  60. ↑ "Realtors, developers back Scott". VTDigger. 8 October 2016. Retrieved 25 October 2016.
  61. ↑ "Scott for GOP Nomination". The Burlington Free Press. 31 July 2016. Retrieved 1 August 2016.
  62. ↑ "Minter, Scott for governor; Smith for lt. gov.". The Stowe Reporter. 4 August 2016. Retrieved 7 August 2016.
  63. ↑ "Editorial: Scott takes the GOP field". The Addison Independent. 4 August 2016. Retrieved 7 August 2016.
  64. ↑ "LISMAN CAMPAIGN ANNOUNCES ENDORSEMENT FROM REP. JOB TATE". vtdigger.org. July 21, 2016. Retrieved July 27, 2016.
  65. 1 2 "SOUTHERN VERMONT LEADERS ENDORSE BRUCE LISMAN FOR GOVERNOR". vtdigger.org. July 25, 2016. Retrieved July 27, 2016.
  66. ↑ "forbes endorsing Bruce Lisman". Youtube. June 24, 2016. Retrieved July 27, 2016.
  67. ↑ "Kyle Midura on Twitter". Twitter. Retrieved 2016-05-06.
  68. ↑ "Republican legislators endorse Phil Scott for governor". Vermont Business Magazine. Retrieved 2016-05-06.
  69. ↑ http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/governor/vermont
  70. ↑ "Vermont's Most Famous Former Baseball Player's Pitch For Governor". WCAX-TV. Retrieved 25 May 2016.

External links

Candidate websites

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