United States presidential election in West Virginia, 2004

United States presidential election in West Virginia, 2004
West Virginia
November 2, 2004
 
Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Texas Massachusetts
Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards
Electoral vote 5 0
Popular vote 423,778 326,541
Percentage 56.1% 43.2%

County Results
  Kerry—60-70%
  Kerry—50-60%
  Bush—<50%
  Bush—50-60%
  Bush—60-70%
  Bush—70-80%
  Bush—80-90%
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in West Virginia took place on November 2, 2004 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 5 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

West Virginia was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 12.9% margin of victory. Prior to the election, 8 of 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered as a red state, while others considered it as a swing state. Democrat President Bill Clinton easily won this state in 1992 and 1996, but Bush carried WV in 2000 with just 52% of the vote. On election day, President Bush won here with a 6.5% better margin than his performance in 2000, signaling that the state is trending Republican at the presidential level. This is despite the fact that over 50% of the state's population are registered Democrats and that (at the time) both senators are Democrats.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

Elections in West Virginia

There were 12 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]

  1. D.C. Political Report: Lean Republican
  2. Associated Press: Toss Up
  3. CNN: Bush
  4. Cook Political Report: Lean Republican
  5. Newsweek: Lean Bush
  6. New York Times: Leans Bush
  7. Rasmussen Reports: Bush
  8. Research 2000: Toss Up
  9. Washington Post: Battleground
  10. Washington Times: Battleground
  11. Zogby International: Bush
  12. Washington Dispatch: Bush

Polling

Early on, pre-election polling showed the election as a pure toss up. But after September 14, Bush pulled away and reached 50% or higher in the polls. The final 3 poll average showed Bush leading 50% to 44%.[2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $527,380.[3] Kerry raised $627,425.[4]

Advertising and visits

Bush visited the state 8 times. Kerry visited the state 6 times.[5] A total of between $100,000 to $550,000 was spent each week. As the election went on, both tickets spent less and less here each week.[6]

Analysis

More than any other state, West Virginia highlighted Kerry's trouble in Appalachian America. It swung heavily to the Democrats during the days of Franklin D. Roosevelt and remained reliably Democratic for most of the next 68 years. It often voted for Democrats (such as Jimmy Carter and Mike Dukakis) who went on to big national defeats. This was largely due to its blue-collar, heavily unionized workers, especially coal miners, who favored Democratic economic policy. Starting with Al Gore, however, the state's voters became more concerned with environmental policies advocated by the Democrats, especially regarding coal, which is a large source of jobs in the state. This made them more receptive to Republicans.

Results

United States presidential election in West Virginia, 2004
Party Candidate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican George W. Bush 423,778 56.1% 5
Democratic John Kerry 326,541 43.2% 0
Independent Ralph Nader 4,063 0.5% 0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik 1,405 0.2% 0
Constitution Michael Peroutka 82 0.0% 0
Write Ins 13 0.0% 0
Green David Cobb 5 0.0% 0
Totals - 100.00% 5
Voter turnout (Voting age population) 53.3%

Results breakdown

By county

County Bush # Bush % Kerry # Kerry % Other # Other % Total #
Barbour 3,975 59.77% 2,636 39.63% 40 0.60% 6651
Berkeley 20,724 63.09% 11,888 36.19% 236 0.72% 32848
Boone 4,163 41.18% 5,890 58.26% 57 0.56% 10110
Braxton 2,964 49.33% 3,014 50.17% 30 0.50% 6008
Brooke 5,147 48.13% 5,460 51.06% 86 0.80% 10693
Cabell 20,777 55.51% 16,328 43.63% 323 0.86% 37428
Calhoun 1,569 54.92% 1,253 43.86% 35 1.23% 2857
Clay 2,183 53.95% 1,824 45.08% 39 0.96% 4046
Doddridge 2,340 73.96% 792 25.03% 32 1.01% 3164
Fayette 7,767 46.40% 8,860 52.93% 112 0.67% 16739
Gilmer 1,660 58.43% 1,153 40.58% 28 0.99% 2841
Grant 4,005 80.62% 944 19.00% 19 0.38% 4968
Greenbrier 6,743 57.06% 4,988 42.21% 87 0.74% 11818
Hampshire 5,465 68.66% 2,444 30.70% 51 0.64% 7960
Hancock 7,224 50.98% 6,829 48.19% 117 0.83% 14170
Hardy 3,600 68.83% 1,606 30.71% 24 0.46% 5230
Harrison 16,913 55.93% 13,102 43.32% 227 0.75% 30242
Jackson 7,604 58.43% 5,332 40.97% 77 0.59% 13013
Jefferson 10,442 52.76% 9,202 46.50% 147 0.74% 19791
Kanawha 43,777 50.57% 42,321 48.89% 472 0.55% 86570
Lewis 3,500 64.46% 1,863 34.31% 67 1.23% 5430
Lincoln 2,175 47.49% 2,378 51.92% 27 0.59% 4580
Logan 6,513 45.44% 7,760 54.14% 59 0.41% 14332
Marion 12,717 50.73% 12,082 48.20% 267 1.07% 25066
Marshall 8,443 56.51% 6,379 42.70% 118 0.79% 14940
Mason 6,451 54.13% 5,374 45.09% 93 0.78% 11918
McDowell 2,729 37.76% 4,464 61.76% 35 0.48% 7228
Mercer 12,914 58.41% 9,052 40.94% 142 0.64% 22108
Mineral 7,640 68.42% 3,444 30.84% 83 0.74% 11167
Mingo 4,544 43.21% 5,912 56.22% 60 0.57% 10516
Monongalia 17,459 51.48% 16,136 47.58% 317 0.93% 33912
Monroe 3,596 60.22% 2,321 38.87% 54 0.90% 5971
Morgan 3,978 64.99% 2,086 34.08% 57 0.93% 6121
Nicholas 5,389 52.92% 4,718 46.33% 76 0.75% 10183
Ohio 11,539 57.42% 8,406 41.83% 152 0.76% 20097
Pendleton 2,120 60.50% 1,367 39.01% 17 0.49% 3504
Pleasants 2,023 59.87% 1,333 39.45% 23 0.68% 3379
Pocahontas 2,282 58.56% 1,565 40.16% 50 1.28% 3897
Preston 7,813 65.85% 3,944 33.24% 107 0.90% 11864
Putnam 15,587 62.50% 9,223 36.98% 129 0.52% 24939
Raleigh 18,072 60.70% 11,522 38.70% 180 0.60% 29774
Randolph 6,495 56.70% 4,880 42.60% 80 0.70% 11455
Ritchie 3,060 73.58% 1,060 25.49% 39 0.94% 4159
Roane 3,424 56.42% 2,599 42.82% 46 0.76% 6069
Summers 2,963 53.94% 2,489 45.31% 41 0.75% 5493
Taylor 2,673 57.55% 1,943 41.83% 29 0.62% 4645
Tucker 2,151 60.54% 1,382 38.90% 20 0.56% 3553
Tyler 2,770 65.97% 1,386 33.01% 43 1.02% 4199
Upshur 6,134 66.68% 2,998 32.59% 67 0.73% 9199
Wayne 9,998 54.08% 8,363 45.23% 128 0.69% 18489
Webster 1,706 46.45% 1,943 52.90% 24 0.65% 3673
Wetzel 3,609 51.90% 3,293 47.35% 52 0.75% 6954
Wirt 1,351 64.58% 714 34.13% 27 1.29% 2092
Wood 22,788 63.06% 13,111 36.28% 239 0.66% 36138
Wyoming 4,930 57.09% 3,666 42.46% 39 0.45% 8635

By congressional district

Bush won all three congressional districts.[7]

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 58% 42% Alan Mollohan
2nd 57% 42% Shelley Moore Capito
3rd 53% 46% Nick Rahall

Electors

Technically the voters of WV cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. WV is allocated 5 electors because it has 3 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 5 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 5 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 5 were pledged for Bush/Cheney:

  1. Rob Capehart
  2. Doug McKinney
  3. Dan Moore
  4. Richie Robb
  5. Larry Faircloth

See also

References

  1. ↑
  2. ↑
  3. ↑ "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President". Campaignmoney.com. Retrieved 2015-05-20.
  4. ↑ "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democrat Party, President". Campaignmoney.com. Retrieved 2015-05-20.
  5. ↑ "Specials". Cnn.com. Retrieved 2015-05-20.
  6. ↑ "Specials". Cnn.com. Retrieved 2015-05-20.
  7. ↑ "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008". Swing State Project. Retrieved 2015-05-20.
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