United States presidential election in Arizona, 2004

United States presidential election in Arizona, 2004

November 2, 2004

Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry Party Republican Democratic Home state Texas Massachusetts Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards Electoral vote 10 0 Popular vote 1,104,294 893,524 Percentage 54.8% 44.4%

County Results   Kerry—60-70%   Kerry—50-60%   Bush—50-60%   Bush—60-70%

President before election George W. Bush Republican Elected President George W. Bush Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Arizona took place on November 2, 2004 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 10 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

Arizona was won by incumbent George Bush by a 10.5% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered as a safe red state. Neither major party tickets campaigned here in the fall election. Arizona hosted the third presidential debate on October 13, 2004 in the city of Tempe.

Primaries

• Arizona Democratic primary, 2004

Campaign

Predictions

Elections in Arizona
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Phoenix Mayoral elections 2011 2015
Tucson Mayoral elections 2011

There were 12 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.^[1]

1. D.C. Political Report: Solid Republican
2. Associated Press: Leans Bush
3. CNN: Bush
4. Cook Political Report: Likely Republican
5. Newsweek: Solid Bush
6. New York Times: Leans Bush
7. Rasmussen Reports: Bush
8. Research 2000: Solid Bush
9. Washington Post: Bush
10. Washington Times: Leans Bush
11. Zogby International: Bush
12. Washington Dispatch: Bush

Polling

Throughout several polls taken in the state in 2004, just one showed Kerry leading. The final 3 pre-election polls showed that Bush was leading with 51% to Kerry's 43%.^[2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $3,196,692.^[3] Kerry raised $1,525,930.^[4]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall campaign.^[5][6]

Analysis

The exit polls showed that Bush was the going to be the clear winner of the state, based on the fact that both Bush won among both genders. A major key factor was how 55% of the people thought the state economy was good, and 70% of those people voted for Bush. Also, 55% of the state approved of Bush.^[7]

The key to Bush's victory was winning the highly populated Maricopa County with almost 57%. Although, Bush did win portions of state such as Arizona's 4th congressional district and Arizona's 7th congressional district and 4 counties. 50% of the voting age population came out to vote.

Results

Results breakdown

By county

Bush won all but 4 counties.^[10]

By congressional district

Bush won 6 of 8 congressional districts.^[11]

Electors

Technically the voters of Arizona cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Arizona is allocated 10 electors because it has 8 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 10 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 10 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from this state. All were pledged to and voted for George W. Bush and Dick Cheney.^[12]

1. Linda Barber
2. Malcolm Barrett
3. Jim Click
4. Cynthia J. Collins
5. Webb Crockett
6. Elizabeth Wilkinson Fannin
7. Ross Farnsworth
8. Ira A. Fulton
9. Bernice C. Roberts
10. Phillip Townsend

References

State results of the United States presidential election, 2004
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