United States Senate election in Ohio, 2012

United States Senate election in Ohio, 2012
Ohio
November 6, 2012 (2012-11-06)
Turnout 64.6% (voting eligible)[1]
 
Nominee Sherrod Brown Josh Mandel
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 2,762,757 2,435,740
Percentage 50.7% 44.7%

U.S. Senate election results map. Blue denotes counties/districts won by Brown. Red denotes those won by Mandel.
U.S. Senator before election

Sherrod Brown
Democratic

 Elected U.S. Senator

Sherrod Brown
Democratic

The 2012 United States Senate election in Ohio took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown won re-election to a second term. He was unopposed in the Democratic primary and Ohio State Treasurer Josh Mandel won the Republican primary with 63% of the vote.[2][3]

Democratic Primary

Democratic Primary Results

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Sherrod Brown (Incumbent) 802,678 100.00
Total votes 802,678 100.00

Republican primary

Candidates

Filed

Withdrew

Endorsements

Josh Mandel was endorsed by Rob Portman, U.S. Senator (R-OH);[10] Jim DeMint, U.S. Senator (R-SC);[11] Jim Jordan, U.S. Congressman (R-OH);[12] Club for Growth;[13] National Rifle Association;[14] Tea Party Express;[15] Jeb Bush, Former Governor of Florida;[16] John McCain, U.S. Senator (R-AZ);[17] Marco Rubio, U.S. Senator (R-FL);[18] Chris Christie, Governor of New Jersey;[19] Afghanistan & Iraq Veterans for Congress (AIVC);[20] Buckeye Firearms Association[21] National Right to Life Committee;[22] Ohio Right to Life;[23] and National Federation of Independent Business[24]

Results

Republican primary results[25]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Josh Mandel 580,525 63.00
Republican Michael Pryce 130,370 14.15
Republican Donna Glisman 114,183 12.39
Republican David Dodt 47,278 5.13
Republican Eric Gregory 47,123 5.11
Republican Russell Bliss 1,927 0.21
Total votes 921,406 100

General election

Candidates

Debates

The candidates engaged in three debates: October 15, October 18 and October 25. The third debate took place Thursday, October 25 at 7 p.m. in Cincinnati. NBC White House Correspondent Chuck Todd moderated the debate with anchor/political reporter Colleen Marshall from WCMH in Columbus, anchor Sheree Paolello from WLWT in Cincinnati, and political reporter Tom Beres from WKYC in Cleveland. It was live on all Ohio NBC affiliates.[27]

Campaign

In 2006, U.S. Representative Sherrod Brown defeated two-term incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Mike DeWine 56%-44% 2006 election. Over the past six years, he established a very liberal, progressive, and populist record. The National Journal named Brown the most liberal U.S. Senator in the past two years.[28] The Washington Post called him a "modern-day Paul Wellstone." One article said “Brown is way to the left of Ohio in general, but probably the only person who could outwork Brown is Portman.”[29] Brown is the only candidate the 60 Plus Association targeted in the 2012 election cycle.[30]

Mandel, 34, was elected State Treasurer in 2010. Before that, he was a Lyndhurst City Councilman and Ohio State Representative. He was criticized as Ohio Treasurer for not fulfilling his pledge to serve a four-year term and for not attending any of the Board of Deposit monthly meetings.[31] However, Mandel raised a lot of money. He was called a rising star in the Republican Party and was called "the rock star of the party." He was also compared to Marco Rubio.[32]

Mandel's campaign was singled out by the independent fact-checking group Politifact for its "casual relationship with the truth" and its tendency to "double down" after inaccuracies were pointed out. The fact-checking group wrote: "For all the gifts Mandel has, from his compelling personal narrative as an Iraq war veteran to a well-oiled fundraising machine, whoppers are fast becoming a calling card of his candidacy."[33]

Mandel raised $7.2 million through the first quarter of 2012. He had $5.3 million cash on hand, trailing Brown's $6.3 million.[34] However, Mandel benefited from massive support from conservative out-of-state superPACs, which raise unlimited amounts of money from anonymous donors. These outside groups, including Crossroads GPS, aired over $60 million in TV advertising supporting Mandel and attacking Brown,[35] outspending Democratically-aligned outside groups by more than five-to-one.[36] Mandel's campaign was aided by over $1 million spent primarily on attack ads by a 501(c)(4) organization called the Government Integrity Fund. The group was funded by anonymous donors and run by lobbyist Tom Norris of Columbus, Ohio-based Cap Square Solutions.[37]

Endorsements

Brown was endorsed by the Cleveland Plain Dealer,[38] the Columbus Dispatch,[39] the Toledo Blade,[40] the Youngstown Vindicator,[41] the Cincinnati Enquirer,[42] and the Akron Beacon-Journal.[43]

Mandel was endorsed by the Warren Tribune-Chronicle[44] and the Marietta Times.[45]

Fundraising

Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt
Sherrod Brown (D) $8,132,882 $3,379,775 $6,273,316 $0
Josh Mandel (R) $7,286,390 $1,999,397 $5,286,993 $0
Scott Rupert (I) $3,153 $2,594 $389 $0
Source: Federal Election Commission[46][47][48]

Top contributors

[49]

Sherrod Brown Contribution Josh Mandel Contribution
JStreetPAC $71,175 Club for Growth $172,904
Ohio State University $69,470 Senate Conservatives Fund $114,400
Kohrman, Jackson & Krantz $59,500 Suarez Corp $90,000
Cleveland Clinic $57,971 Kasowitz Benson Torres & Friedman $41,600
Forest City Enterprises $51,600 American Financial Group $32,750
American Electric Power $42,350 Cintas Corp $30,000
Squire Sanders $39,400 Sullivan & Cromwell $25,475
Baker & Hostetler $38,906 Susquehanna International Group $22,500
Case Western Reserve University $35,450 Timken Company $22,500
Vorys, Sater, Seymour and Pease $34,167 Crawford Group $22,000

Top industries

[50]

Sherrod Brown Contribution Josh Mandel Contribution
Lawyers/Law Firms $1,587,113 Retired $480,900
Retired $942,717 Financial Institutions $397,140
Health Professionals $536,954 Real Estate $371,057
Real Estate $435,066 Lawyers/Law Firms $362,515
Lobbyists $393,651 Leadership PACs $320,050
Education $369,722 Republican/Conservative $278,924
Leadership PACs $318,975 Manufacturing & Distributing $276,600
Hospitals/Nursing Homes $286,072 Misc Finance $205,350
Insurance $223,983 Retail Industry $166,650
Financial Institutions $204,350 Pro-Israel $163,000

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Sherrod
Brown (D)		 Josh
Mandel (R)		 Other Undecided
Rasmussen Reports November 4, 2012 750 ± 4% 50% 48% 1% 1%
Public Policy Polling November 3–4, 2012 1,000 ± 3.1% 54% 44% — 3%
Angus Reid Public Opinion November 2–4, 2012 572 ± 4.1% 52% 46% 2% —
SurveyUSA November 1–4, 2012 803 ± 3.5% 44% 41% 4% 9%
Ohio Poll/Univ. of Cincinnati October 31–November 4, 2012 901 ± 3.3% 51% 47% 3% —
Columbus Dispatch October 24–November 3, 2012 1,501 ± 2.2% 51% 45% 4% —
Rasmussen Reports November 1, 2012 750 ± 4.0% 48% 48% 2% 2%
NBC/WSJ/Marist October 31–November 1, 2012 971 ± 3.1% 50% 45% 1% 4%
Reuters/Ipsos October 29–31, 2012 885 ± 3.8% 49% 41% 4% 6%
985 ± 3.6% 46% 40% 3% 11%
University of Cincinnati/Ohio Poll October 25–30, 2012 1,182 ± 2.9% 49% 44% 4% 3%
Zogby/Newsmax October 27–29, 2012 825 ± 3.5% 46% 38% 8% 9%
SurveyUSA October 26–29, 2012 603 ± 4.1% 46% 41% 3% 10%
Rasmussen Reports October 28, 2012 750 ± 4.0% 50% 48% 1% 1%
Pharos Research October 26–28, 2012 765 ± 3.5% 53% 43% — 7%
Public Policy Polling October 26–28, 2012 718 ± 3.7% 53% 42% — 6%
CBS/Quinnipiac University October 23–28, 2012 1,110 ± 3.0% 51% 42% — 7%
Gravis Marketing October 27, 2012 730 ± 3.6% 48% 47% — 5%
Cincinnati Enquirer/Ohio News October 18–23, 2012 1,015 ± 3.1% 51% 47% 1% 2%
Rasmussen Reports October 23, 2012 750 ± 4.0% 48% 44% 2% 5%
SurveyUSA October 20–22, 2012 725 ± 4.2% 43% 42% 3% 12%
Pharos Research October 19–21, 2012 810 ± 3.4% 52% 41% — 7%
Suffolk October 18–21, 2012 600 unknown 46% 39% 6% 10%
Angus Reid Public Opinion October 18–20, 2012 550 ± 4.2% 52% 45% 3% —
Public Policy Polling October 18–20, 2012 532 ± 4.3% 49% 44% — 7%
CBS News/Quinnipiac October 17–20, 2012 1,548 ± 3.0% 51% 42% — 7%
Rasmussen Reports October 17, 2012 750 ± 4.0% 49% 44% 1% 5%
Survey USA October 12–15, 2012 613 ± 4.0% 43% 38% 4% 14%
Public Policy Polling October 12–13, 2012 880 ± 3.3% 49% 42% — 9%
Rasmussen Reports October 10, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 47% 46% 2% 4%
NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll October 7–9, 2012 994 ± 3.1% 52% 41% 1% 6%
SurveyUSA October 5–8, 2012 808 ± 3.5% 42% 38% 4% 16%
Rasmussen Reports October 4, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 46% 46% 2% 6%
NBC/WSJ/Marist September 30–October 1, 2012 931 ± 3.2% 50% 41% 1% 7%
CBS/New York Times/Quinnipiac September 18–24, 2012 1,162 ± 4.0% 50% 40% — 10%
Washington Post September 19–23, 2012 934 ± 4.0% 53% 41% — 6%
Gravis Marketing September 21–22, 2012 594 ± 4.3% 44% 43% — 13%
Fox News Poll September 16–18, 2012 1,009 ± 3.0% 47% 40% 1% 9%
Ohio Newspaper Organization September 13–18, 2012 861 ± 3.3% 52% 45% 1% 2%
Rasmussen Reports September 12, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 49% 41% 3% 7%
NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll September 9–11, 2012 979 ± 3.1% 49% 42% — 9%
Public Policy Polling September 7–9, 2012 1,072 ± 3.0% 48% 40% — 11%
Gravis Marketing September 7–8, 2012 1,548 ± 2.7% 47% 42% — 11%
Columbus Dispatch August 15–25, 2012 1,758 ± 2.1% 44% 44% — 12%
Ohio Poll August 16–21, 2012 847 ± 3.4% 48% 47% — 5%
Quinnipiac August 15–21, 2012 1,253 ± 2.8% 48% 45% 1% 10%
Rasmussen Reports August 13, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 44% 44% 3% 9%
Quinnipiac July 24–30, 2012 1,193 ± 2.8% 51% 39% 1% 9%
Magellan Strategies July 23–24, 2012 597 ± 4.0% 45% 38% 12% 5%
Rasmussen Reports July 18, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 46% 42% 4% 8%
Quinnipiac June 19–25, 2012 1,237 ± 2.8% 50% 34% 1% 14%
Public Policy Polling June 21–24, 2012 673 ± 3.8% 46% 39% — 15%
Rasmussen Reports May 29, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 47% 42% 3% 7%
NBC News/Marist May 17–20, 2012 1,103 ± 3.0% 51% 37% — 12%
Quinnipiac May 2–7, 2012 1,069 ± 3.0% 46% 40% 1% 13%
Public Policy Polling May 3–6, 2012 875 ± 3.3% 45% 37% — 19%
Rasmussen Reports April 18, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 44% 41% 3% 12%
Rasmussen Reports March 26, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 43% 43% 3% 11%
Quinnipiac March 20–26, 2012 1,246 ± 2.8% 46% 36% 3% 14%
NBC News/Marist February 29–March 2, 2012 3,079 ± 1.8% 47% 37% — 16%
Quinnipiac February 7–12, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 48% 35% 4% 17%
Rasmussen Reports February 8, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 44% 40% 4% 12%
Public Policy Polling January 28–29, 2012 820 ± 3.4% 47% 36% — 17%
Quinnipiac January 9–16, 2012 1,610 ± 2.4% 47% 32% 1% 18%
Public Policy Polling November 4–6, 2011 1,421 ± 2.6% 48% 35% — 14%
Quinnipiac October 17–23, 2011 1,668 ± 2.4% 49% 34% 1% 14%
Public Policy Polling October 13–16, 2011 581 ± 4.1% 48% 40% — 12%
Quinnipiac September 20–25, 2011 1,301 ± 2.7% 49% 36% — 13%
Public Policy Polling August 11–14, 2011 792 ± 3.5% 48% 33% — 19%
Quinnipiac July 12–18, 2011 1,659 ± 4.1% 49% 34% 1% 16%
Public Policy Polling May 19–22, 2011 565 ± 4.1% 48% 31% — 21%
Quinnipiac May 10–16, 2011 1,379 ± 2.6% 45% 31% 2% 21%
Public Policy Polling March 10–13, 2011 559 ± 4.1% 48% 32% — 21%

Results

Brown did better than polls right before the election suggested. Instead of winning by two points (which polls right before the election had suggested) Brown won by six points. Republicans could not come back from the huge margins for the Democrats of Cuyahoga County, Franklin County, Lucas County, and Hamilton County.

United States Senate election in Ohio, 2012
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Democratic Sherrod Brown (Incumbent) 2,762,757 50.7% -5.90
Republican Josh Mandel 2,435,740 44.7% +1.30
Independent Scott Rupert 250,617 4.6% +4.58
Majority 327,017 6.0%
Turnout 5,449,414
Democratic hold Swing

See also

References

  1. ↑ Dr. Michael McDonald (February 9, 2013). "2012 General Election Turnout Rates". George Mason University. Retrieved April 6, 2013.
  2. ↑ ENR - My Results
  3. ↑ Election Map 2012: Live Voting Results - POLITICO.com
  4. ↑ "Glisman for Senate". www.VoteGlisman.com (Campaign site). Archived from the original on 2013-05-15. Retrieved 2013-09-15.
  5. ↑ "Eric LaMont Gregory - America First - Mansfield". www.theoxfordscientist.com. Archived from the original on 2012-10-06. Retrieved 2013-09-15.
  6. ↑ Guillen, Joe (2012-03-12). "After months of campaigning, Josh Mandel formally announces bid for U.S. Senate". cleveland.com. The Plain Dealer. Retrieved 2013-09-15.
  7. ↑ "Michael Pryce M.D. for U.S. Senate Ohio". Michaelpryce.com. Archived from the original on 2012-06-23. Retrieved June 27, 2011.
  8. ↑ Catanese, David (2011-10-24). "Coughlin terminates bid". POLITICO.com. Retrieved 2013-09-18.
  9. ↑ Miller, Joshua (2011-10-25). "State Senator Ends Ohio Senate Primary Bid". Roll Call Politics. Retrieved 2013-09-18.
  10. ↑ Miller, Joshua (2011-10-25). "Sen. Portman supports Mandel in email - The Hill's Ballot Box". Roll Call. Retrieved 2013-09-16.
  11. ↑ Center, Shira T. (2011-06-27). "DeMint Endorses Josh Mandel in Ohio". Roll Call Politics. Retrieved 2013-09-18.
  12. ↑ Koff, Stephen (2011-08-22). "Ending the Jim Jordan speculation: He endorses Josh Mandel". cleveland.com. The Plain Dealer. Retrieved 2013-09-18.
  13. ↑ Koff, Stephen (2011-06-28). "Josh Mandel gets another national endorsement for U.S. Senate". cleveland.com. The Plain Dealer. Retrieved 2013-09-15.
  14. ↑ National Rifle Association | Political Victory Fund | Ohio
  15. ↑ Tea Party Express | 2012 Endorsements | Tea Party Express
  16. ↑ Jeb Bush: Ohio's Mandel Key to GOP Control of Senate
  17. ↑ Sen. John McCain praises Josh Mandel's military experience in endorsing his Senate campaign | cleveland.com
  18. ↑ Ohio: Marco Rubio Stumps for Josh Mandel | Josh Mandel for U.S. Senate
  19. ↑ John McCain, Chris Christie campaign for Ohio GOP Senate candidate Josh Mandel
  20. ↑ AIVC Endorsed US Senate Candidate Josh Mandel (R-OH): Why Ohio is the Key to Beating Obama | Afghanistan & Iraq Veterans for Congress
  21. ↑ http://www.buckeyefirearms.org/node/8293
  22. ↑ NRL PAC Endorses Josh Mandel for Senate in Ohio | NRL News Today
  23. ↑ Ohio Right to Life PAC Endorses Federal Candidates - Ohio Right to Life PAC Website
  24. ↑ NFIB Endorses Josh Mandel in Ohio U.S. Senate Election | NFIB
  25. ↑ ENR - My Results
  26. ↑ Bletner, Rhonda (July 31, 2012). "Senate hopeful Scott Rupert speaks with local residents". Mount Vernon News. Archived from the original on 2012-10-15. Retrieved December 2, 2015.
  27. ↑ http://www.wfmj.com/story/19706950/ohio-nbc-affiliates-to-air-live-senate-debate-october-25th
  28. ↑ Terkel, Amanda (December 22, 2011). "Which Senate Race Is Attracting Most GOP Third-Party Spending?". Huffington Post.
  29. ↑ Blake, Aaron (November 8, 2011). "Sherrod Brown and the Wellstone factor". The Washington Post.
  30. ↑ Neal, Meghan (March 5, 2012). "GOP 'Rock Star' Could Spell Trouble For Sherrod Brown". Huffington Post.
  31. ↑ McAuliff, Michael (February 24, 2012). "Ohio Senate Candidate Skipped Board Meetings For No Known Reason". Huffington Post.
  32. ↑ Politics - Molly Ball - Is Josh Mandel the Next Marco Rubio? - The Atlantic
  33. ↑ Gomez, Henry (March 26, 2012). "Even in an age of fact checking, the whopper lives". Politifact. Retrieved July 5, 2012.
  34. ↑ Wehrman, Jessica (16 April 2012). "Incumbents winning in fundraising". Dayton Daily News. Retrieved 30 April 2012.
  35. ↑ "Sherrod Brown: 'Karl Rove Had A Bad Night'". 7 November 2012. Retrieved 7 November 2012.
  36. ↑ Welna, David (July 5, 2012). "Ohio Senator Vulnerable For Health Law Support". NPR. Retrieved July 5, 2012.
  37. ↑ Elliot, Justin (September 7, 2012). "Revealed: The Dark Money Group Attacking Sen. Sherrod Brown". ProPublica. Retrieved September 9, 2012.
  38. ↑ "Sherrod Brown has earned a second term in the Senate: editorial". cleveland.com. The Plain Dealer. 2012-10-06. Retrieved 2013-09-18. ],
  39. ↑ "Brown's experience makes him the better choice for voters". dispatch.com. Columbus Dispatch (subscription). 2012-10-31. Retrieved 2013-09-18.
  40. ↑ "Re-elect Senator Brown". toledoblade.com. The Toledo Blade. 2012-10-07. Retrieved 2013-09-18.
  41. ↑ "Sherrod Brown: the clear choice in Ohio's U.S. Senate race". vindy.com. The Youngstown Vindicator. 2012-10-08. Retrieved 2013-09-18.
  42. ↑ "Brown dedicated to Ohio's needs, problems". Cincinnati.com. Cincinnati Enquirer. 2012-10-27. Retrieved 2013-09-18.
  43. ↑ "For the U.S. Senate: Sherrod Brown". Ohio.com. Akron Beacon Journal. 2012-09-22. Retrieved 2013-09-18.
  44. ↑ "Mandel best for economic future of Ohio". tribtoday.com. Tribune Chronicle (Warren, OH). 2012-10-21. Retrieved 2013-09-18.
  45. ↑ "Vote for Mandel on Nov. 6". MariettaTimes.com. Marietta Times. 2012-10-13. Retrieved 2013-09-18.
  46. ↑ Brown Campaign Finances
  47. ↑ Mandel Campaign Finances
  48. ↑ Rupert Campaign Finances
  49. ↑ Center for Responsive Politics
  50. ↑ Donors by Industry (opensecrets.org)

External links

Official campaign websites
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