Victorian state election, 2018

Victorian state election, 2018
Victoria (Australia)
24 November 2018
All 88 seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly
45 seats are needed for a majority
All 40 seats in the Victorian Legislative Council
 
Leader Daniel Andrews Matthew Guy Greg Barber
Party Labor Liberal/National coalition Greens
Leader since 3 December 2010 4 December 2014 25 November 2006
Leader's seat Mulgrave Bulleen MLC for
Northern Metropolitan
Last election 47 seats 38 seats 2 seats
Current seats 47 seats 38 seats 2 seats
Seats needed Steady Increase7 Increase43
% @ 2014 38.10% 41.99% 11.48%
TPP @ 2014 51.99% 48.01%
TPP polling 56.5% 43.5%
BP polling 59% 41%
Incumbent Premier

Daniel Andrews
Labor

The next state election in the state of Victoria will be held on Saturday, 24 November 2018 to elect 88 members to the Legislative Assembly and 40 members to the Legislative Council. The election will be conducted by the Victorian Electoral Commission.

Date of election

Pursuant to Electoral Act 2002 Victoria has had fixed terms, with all elections since the 2006 election, held every 4 years on the last Saturday of November.[1][2] The election will be for all 88 members of the Legislative Assembly and all 40 members of the Legislative Council.[1][2] Based on the fixed term legislation, the next election will occur on 24 November 2018.

Previous election

Lower house

At the 2014 election, Labor won majority government with 47 seats. The Coalition won 38 seats, with the Liberal party winning 30 and the National party winning 8. On the crossbench, the Greens won 2 seats and Independent Suzanna Sheed won the seat of Shepparton.

Upper house

At the 2014 election, Labor won 14 seats; the Coalition won 16 seats (14 Liberal, 2 National); the Greens won 5 seats; the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party won 2 seats; and the Sex Party, Democratic Labour Party, and Vote 1 Local Jobs party won 1 seat each.

Pendulum

The following Mackerras Pendulum works by lining up all of the seats according to the percentage point margin on a two candidate preferred basis based on the 2014 results.[3] The Australian Electoral Commission considers a seat "safe" if it requires a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.[4]

LABOR SEATS
Marginal
Frankston Paul Edbrooke ALP 0.5%
Carrum Sonya Kilkenny ALP 0.7%
Bentleigh Nick Staikos ALP 0.8%
Richmond Richard Wynne ALP 1.9% v GRN
Mordialloc Tim Richardson ALP 2.1%
Brunswick Jane Garrett ALP 2.2% v GRN
Cranbourne Jude Perera ALP 2.3%
Eltham Vicki Ward ALP 2.7%
Albert Park Martin Foley ALP 3.0%
Ivanhoe Anthony Carbines ALP 3.4%
Yan Yean Danielle Green ALP 3.7%
Macedon Mary-Anne Thomas ALP 3.8%
Sunbury Josh Bull ALP 4.3%
Mulgrave Daniel Andrews ALP 4.5%
Narre Warren North Luke Donnellan ALP 4.6%
Bellarine Lisa Neville ALP 4.8%
Bendigo East Jacinta Allan ALP 5.0%
Monbulk James Merlino ALP 5.0%
Narre Warren South Judith Graley ALP 5.5%
Wendouree Sharon Knight ALP 5.8%
Fairly safe
Geelong Christine Couzens ALP 6.0%
Northcote Fiona Richardson ALP 6.0% v GRN
Buninyong Geoff Howard ALP 6.4%
Niddrie Ben Carroll ALP 7.7%
Oakleigh Steve Dimopoulos ALP 8.2%
Essendon Danny Pearson ALP 8.7%
Safe
Melton Don Nardella ALP 11.2%
Keysborough Martin Pakula ALP 11.9%
Bendigo West Maree Edwards ALP 12.2%
Bundoora Colin Brooks ALP 12.2%
Altona Jill Hennessy ALP 12.6%
Dandenong Gabrielle Williams ALP 12.9%
Footscray Marsha Thompson ALP 14.5%
Tarneit Telmo Languiller ALP 14.6%
Werribee Tim Pallas ALP 15.7%
Clarinda Hong Lim ALP 15.8%
Sydenham Natalie Hutchins ALP 16.3%
Williamstown Wade Noonan ALP 16.5%
Pascoe Vale Lizzie Blandthorn ALP 16.8%
Lara John Eren ALP 17.1%
St Albans Natalie Suleyman ALP 17.5%
Yuroke Ros Spence ALP 18.5%
Mill Park Lily D'Ambrosio ALP 19.9%
Very safe
Kororoit Marlene Kairouz ALP 20.0%
Preston Robin Scott ALP 24.7%
Broadmeadows Frank McGuire ALP 27.8%
Thomastown Bronwyn Halfpenny ALP 28.4%
COALITION SEATS
Marginal
Ripon Louise Staley LIB 0.8%
Morwell Russell Northe NAT 1.8%
South Barwon Andrew Katos LIB 2.9%
Burwood Graham Watt LIB 3.2%
Eildon Cindy McLeish LIB 3.8%
Bass Brian Paynter LIB 4.6%
Bayswater Heidi Victoria LIB 4.6%
Mount Waverley Michael Gidley LIB 4.6%
Forest Hill Neil Angus LIB 4.8%
Caulfield David Southwick LIB 4.9%
Ringwood Dee Ryall LIB 5.1%
Box Hill Robert Clark LIB 5.7%
Fairly safe
Sandringham Murray Thompson LIB 7.3%
Hastings Neale Burgess LIB 7.6%
Nepean Martin Dixon LIB 7.6%
Ferntree Gully Nick Wakeling LIB 7.8%
Mildura Peter Crisp NAT 8.0% v IND
Rowville Kim Wells LIB 8.4%
Hawthorn John Pesutto LIB 8.6%
Gembrook Brad Battin LIB 9.0%
Croydon David Hodgett LIB 9.3%
Evelyn Christine Fyffe LIB 9.6%
Benambra Bill Tilley LIB 9.7%
Brighton Louise Asher LIB 9.8%
Safe
Bulleen Matthew Guy LIB 10.6%
Kew Tim Smith LIB 10.6%
Polwarth Terry Mulder LIB 10.6%
South-West Coast Denis Napthine LIB 11.0%
Narracan Gary Blackwood LIB 11.3%
Warrandyte Ryan Smith LIB 11.6%
Mornington David Morris LIB 12.6%
Euroa Steph Ryan NAT 14.5%
Gippsland South Peter Ryan NAT 15.7%
Malvern Michael O'Brien LIB 16.3%
Ovens Valley Tim McCurdy NAT 16.6%
Gippsland East Tim Bull NAT 17.9%
Very safe
Lowan Emma Kealy NAT 21.3%
Murray Plains Peter Walsh NAT 22.4%
CROSS BENCH SEATS
Prahran Sam Hibbins GRN 0.4% v LIB
Melbourne Ellen Sandell GRN 2.4% v ALP
Shepparton Suzanna Sheed IND 2.6% v NAT

By-elections

Former Nationals leader Peter Ryan announced his resignation from parliament on 2 February 2015, triggering a by-election in the seat of Gippsland South for the 14 March.[5] The election was won by Danny O'Brien of the National Party.

Denis Napthine and Terry Mulder resigned from parliament on 3 September 2015. Their seats were retained by the Liberal Party in by-elections held in South-West Coast and Polwarth on 31 October.

Retiring Members

Labor

Liberal

Polling

Polling that is conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes usually consist of over 1200 electors. The declared margin of error is ±2.8 percentage points.

Legislative Assembly (lower house) polling
Date Firm Primary vote TPP vote
ALP LIB NAT GRN OTH ALP L/NP
October 2016 Roy Morgan[10] 39% 36% 13% 12% 56.5% 43.5%
1 September 2016 ReachTEL[11] 34.6% 40.1% 10.7% 51% 49%
August 2016 Roy Morgan[12] 37.5% 36% 13.5% 13.5% 55.5% 44.5%
August 2016 ReachTel[13] 35.0% 42.7% 13.0% 9.3% 52% 48%
August 2016 Roy Morgan[14] 40.5% 38% 13% 8.5% 56% 44%
March 2016 Roy Morgan[15] 40.5% 39% 12% 8.5% 55% 45%
Nov–Dec 2015 Roy Morgan[16] 40.5% 38% 13% 8.5% 56% 44%
Nov–Dec 2015 Newspoll[17] 39% 38% 5% 12% 6% 52% 48%
16 Oct 2015 Roy Morgan[18] 40% 39% 14.5% 6.5% 55.5% 44.5%
28–31 Aug 2015 Roy Morgan[19] 39% 35.5% 16.5% 9% 57% 43%
31 Jul-3 Aug 2015 Roy Morgan[20] 41% 38% 14% 7% 56.5% 43.5%
May–June 2015 Newspoll[17] 41% 32% 3% 14% 10% 58% 42%
27 May 2015 Roy Morgan[21] 43.5% 38.5% 12.5% 5.5% 56.5% 43.5%
10-13 Apr 2015 Roy Morgan[22] 41% 40% 11.5% 7.5% 54% 46%
13-15 Mar 2015 Roy Morgan[23] 43% 38% 11.5% 7.5% 56% 44%
14-16 Feb 2015 Roy Morgan[24] 41.5% 39.5% 11.5% 7.5% 54.5% 45.5%
16–18 Jan 2015 Roy Morgan[25] 45% 35%* 11.5% 8.5% 59% 41%
4 December 2014 Matthew Guy becomes Liberal leader and leader of the opposition
29 Nov 2014 Election 38.1% 36.5% 5.5% 11.5% 8.4% 52.0% 48.0%
25–28 Nov 2014 Ipsos[26] 35% 42%* 15% 8% 52% 48%
24–27 Nov 2014 Newspoll 39% 36% 4% 12% 9% 52% 48%
27 Nov 2014 ReachTEL[27] 38.3% 34.5% 5.2% 13.5% 8.5% 52% 48%
26–27 Nov 2014 Roy Morgan[28] 36% 44%* 13.5% 6.5% 50% 50%
25–26 Nov 2014 Galaxy[29] 39% 40%* 13% 8% 52% 48%
7–24 Nov 2014 Essential[30] 39% 40%* 13% 8% 52% 48%
* Indicates a combined Liberal/National primary vote.
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian and sourced from here
 Better Premier and satisfaction polling*
Date Firm Better Premier Andrews Guy
Andrews Guy Satisfied Dissatisfied Satisfied Dissatisfied
October 2016 Roy Morgan[10] 59% 41%
1 September 2016 Newspoll[11] 49% 51% not asked
May 2016 Roy Morgan[16] 63.5% 36.5% not asked
Nov–Dec 2015 Newspoll[17] 43% 26% 43% 39% 27% 40%
16 Oct 2015 Roy Morgan 63.5% 36.5% not asked
31 Jul-3 Aug 2015 Roy Morgan[20] 64% 36% not asked
25–28 Nov 2014 Newspoll[17] 48% 24% 51% 32% 35% 29%
10-13 Apr 2015 Roy Morgan[21] 63% 37% not asked
10-13 Apr 2015 Roy Morgan[22] 59.5% 40.5% not asked
13-15 Mar 2015 Roy Morgan[23] 62.5% 37.5% not asked
14–16 Feb 2015 Roy Morgan[24] 62.5% 37.5% not asked
16–18 Jan 2015 Roy Morgan[25] 66.5% 33.5% not asked
4 December 2014 Guy replaces Napthine Andrews Napthine Andrews Napthine
29 Nov 2014 Election – – – – – –
25–28 Nov 2014 Ipsos[26] 42% 44% 42% 43% 49% 40%
24–27 Nov 2014 Newspoll 37% 41% 38% 43% 41% 45%
26–27 Nov 2014 Roy Morgan[28] 49.5% 50.5% not asked
25–26 Nov 2014 Galaxy[29] 38% 41% not asked
* Remainder were "uncommitted" or "other/neither".
† Participants were forced to choose.
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian and sourced from here

References

  1. 1 2 Table Office (24 May 2010). "Information Sheet 16 - A New Electoral System for Victoria's Legislative Council". Department of the Legislative Council. Parliament of Victoria. Retrieved 9 February 2015.
  2. 1 2 "Fact Sheet G3: Elections" (PDF). Parliament of Victoria. December 2010. Retrieved 9 February 2015.
  3. ↑ Green, Antony (11 December 2014). "Victorian Post-election Pendulum". ABC Elections - Antony Green's Election Blog. Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Retrieved 16 January 2015.
  4. ↑ "Political party name abbreviations & codes, demographic ratings and seat status". Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 16 January 2015.
  5. ↑ http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-02/former-victorian-nationals-leader-peter-ryan-retires-from-polit/6061934
  6. ↑ "Steve Herbert resigns from Victorian Cabinet after using driver to chauffeur pet dogs". Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
  7. ↑ Willingham, Richard (11 August 2016). "Veteran Liberal MP Louise Asher to retire, sparking battle for Brighton seat". The Age.
  8. ↑ "Victorian Liberal MP Martin Dixon to bow out of politics at next election". ABC News. 10 August 2016. Retrieved 11 August 2016.
  9. ↑ "Retirement of Christine Fyffe". Liberal Party of Australia.
  10. 1 2 "WA Premier Colin Barnett in trouble in the West while Andrews Government still riding high in Victoria despite CFA union dispute and SA Premier Weatherill weathering electricity storm well". Roy Morgan Research. 11 October 2016.
  11. 1 2 "Matthew Guy preferred premier in poll as support for Daniel Andrews collapses". The Age. 3 September 2016.
  12. ↑ "Now 'too close to call' in New South Wales as Baird support slips while ALP has slight lead in Western Australia and a clear lead in Victoria". Roy Morgan Research. 8 September 2016.
  13. ↑
  14. ↑ "L-NP in front in NSW & WA and ALP well in front in Victoria but parties dead-level in Queensland after LNP elect new Leader Tim Nicholls". Roy Morgan Research. 1 June 2016.
  15. ↑ "ALP increases support in all Australian States. Queensland electors narrowly turn down new election after Referendum on 4 year terms successful". Roy Morgan Research. 1 April 2016.
  16. 1 2
  17. 1 2 3 4 May–Jun and Nov–Dec 2015 Victorian state polling: Newspoll PDF
  18. ↑ "Popular Premiers Mike Baird & Daniel Andrews have large leads in NSW & Victoria while other States are close". Roy Morgan Research. Roy Morgan Research. Retrieved 17 October 2015.
  19. ↑ "Popular Premiers Mike Baird & Daniel Andrews have large leads in NSW & Victoria while other States except Tasmania are close". Roy Morgan Research. 3 September 2015. Retrieved 3 September 2015.
  20. 1 2 "Popular Premiers Mike Baird & Daniel Andrews have large leads in NSW & Victoria". Roy Morgan Research. 10 Aug 2015. Retrieved 10 Aug 2015.
  21. 1 2 "Honeymoons continue for NSW Premier Baird & Victorian Premier Andrews while the honeymoon is over for Queensland Premier Palaszczuk". Roy Morgan Research. 27 May 2015. Retrieved 27 May 2015.
  22. 1 2 "NSW Premier Mike Baird enjoys clear honeymoon lead; Voters in Queensland back Premier Palaszczuk after strong stance on Billy Gordon". Roy Morgan Research. 15 April 2015. Retrieved 21 April 2015.
  23. 1 2 "New Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews strengthens lead while new Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk preferred Premier by men for the first time". Roy Morgan Research. 22 January 2015. Retrieved 23 January 2015.
  24. 1 2 "Mike Baird set to be re-elected Premier in NSW next month. Palaszczuk's Queensland Election victory reveals fresh 'gender split' in Queensland". Roy Morgan Research. 18 March 2015. Retrieved 4 April 2015.
  25. 1 2 "Queensland State Election too close to call with only a week to go but Mike Baird set to be re-elected Premier in NSW". Roy Morgan Research. 22 January 2015. Retrieved 23 January 2015.
  26. 1 2 Gordon, Josh (28 November 2014). "Victorian election 2014: result likely to come down to the wire". The Age. Melbourne. Retrieved 28 November 2014.
  27. ↑ "7 News - Victorian poll - 27 November 2014". ReachTEL. 28 November 2014. Retrieved 28 November 2014.
  28. 1 2 "ALP favoured to win Victorian Election but late surge to Liberals continues. A close election will be decided on minor party preferences". Roy Morgan Research. 28 November 2014. Retrieved 27 November 2014.
  29. 1 2 "Voters united in Link support". Herald Sun. 28 November 2014. Retrieved 28 November 2014.
  30. ↑ "Essential Report - Victorian State Election" (PDF). Essential Research. 28 November 2014. Retrieved 28 November 2014.
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