North Rhine-Westphalia state election, 2012

North Rhine-Westphalia state election, 2012^[1][2]

13 May 2012

All 237 seats of the Landtag of North Rhine-Westphalia 119 seats needed for a majority Turnout 59.6%   First party Second party Third party   Leader Hannelore Kraft Norbert Röttgen Sylvia Löhrmann Party SPD CDU Green Last election 67 seats, 34.5% 67 seats, 34.6% 23 seats, 12.1% Seats before 67 67 23 Seats won 99 67 29 Seat change 32 6 Popular vote 3,050,160 2,050,633 884,136 Percentage 39.1% 26.3% 11.3% Swing 4.6% 8.3% 0.8%   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Leader Christian Lindner Joachim Paul Katharina Schwabedissen Party FDP Pirates Left Last election 13 seats, 6.7% 0 seats, 1.6% 11 seats, 5.6% Seats before 13 0 11 Seats won 22 20 0 Seat change 9 20 11 Popular vote 669,971 608,957 194,539 Percentage 8.6% 7.8% 2.5% Swing 1.9% 6.2% 3.1%

First votes in the electoral districts.   CDU   SPD

Minister-President before election Hannelore Kraft SPD Minister-President designate Hannelore Kraft SPD

The North Rhine-Westphalia state election, 2012 was a snap election held on 13 May 2012, to elect members to the Landtag of the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia, after the former Landtag was dissolved on 14 March 2012. The red-green minority government led by Minister-President Hannelore Kraft was returned with a 19-seat majority and were able to continue governing the state.

The opposition consisted of the CDU, led by Norbert Röttgen since 2010, the FDP and The Left.

Background

Germany's largest state has often been described as a bellwether in recent years.^[3][4] The Social Democrats led the state's governments continuously from 1966 until a CDU-FDP coalition took control in the 2005 election. The defeat in the 2005 election led to Chancellor Gerhard Schröder calling early federal elections, which he lost.

The Red-Green coalition formed a minority government with Hannelore Kraft as Minister President after emerging one seat short of a governing majority in the previous election.^[5] The Landtag was dissolved after the government failed to pass the budget on 14 March 2012.^[5][6] All 3 opposition parties voted against the budget.^[6] The coalition were expecting the Free Democrats to abstain from voting on the budget and this would have allowed the Red-Green coalition to continue governing.^[7]

Campaign and issues

The Social Democratic Party and Green Party campaigned for a majority and were predicted to gain seats in the polls. The SPD won a landslide of constituencies, winning 99 seats to the CDU's 29 - more than the 72/181 seats they would be entitled to under the mixed member proportional representation system. The Landtag was increased from 181 to 237 seats to accommodate the "overhang".

The Christian Democratic Union nominated Environment Minister Norbert Röttgen to lead their campaign in North Rhine-Westphalia. However, Röttgen was criticised for not explaining whether he intended to stay in federal politics or continue to lead the party on a state level if he lost, and opinion polls showed that voters preferred Kraft as a Minister-President by a wide margin. The CDU made tackling the state's €230bn debt a key issue, including using a giant inflatable "debt mountain" as a prop.^[8]

The Free Democratic Party had fallen below the 5% threshold in six state elections since the 2009 federal election, but had managed to win 8% of the vote in Schleswig-Holstein a week before. In North-Rhine Westphalia, the FDP increased their share of the vote for the first time since 2009. This was attributed to the leadership of Christian Lindner.^[9]

The Pirate Party, running on a loose platform of Internet freedom and grassroots democracy, won seats in its fourth consecutive state election.

The Left Party, which had won seats in the Landtag for the first time in 2010, lost half its votes and all of its seats.

Polls

Opinion polls

The following opinion polls were conducted during the campaign:

Seat forecast

Analysts on election.de forecast the proportion of the 128 first-past-the-post seats (the other 109 being elected using party lists) after the next election. These seats traditionally have been held by either CDU or SPD.

Minister-President preference

Some pollsters also included the question on locals preference on the next Minister-President:

Results

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 Summary of the 13 May 2012 Landtag of North Rhine-Westphalia elections results

Party		Popular vote			Seats
		Votes	%	+/–	Seats	+/–
	Social Democratic Party of Germany Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands - SPD	3,050,160	39.1%	4.6%	99	32
	Christian Democratic Union Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands - CDU	2,050,633	26.3%	8.3%	67
	Alliance '90/The Greens Bündnis 90/Die Grünen	884,136	11.3%	0.8%	29	6
	Free Democratic Party Freie Demokratische Partei – FDP|| 669,971	8.6%	1.9%	22	9
	Pirate Party Germany Piratenpartei Deutschland	608,957	7.8%	6.2%	20	20
	Left Die Linke	194,239	2.5%	3.1%	0	11
	Other parties	335,730	4.4%	0.9%	0
Valid votes		7,794,126	98.6%
Invalid votes		107,796	1.4%
Totals and voter turnout		7,901,922	59.6%	0.3%	237	56
Electorate		13,264,231	100.00	—
Source: Die Landeswahlleiterin des Landes Nordrhein-Westfalen

Sources

Wikimedia Commons has media related to North Rhine-Westphalia state election, 2012.

Elections in North Rhine-Westphalia
1947 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012
See also: Elections in the Free State of Prussia