Louisiana gubernatorial election, 2015

Louisiana gubernatorial election, 2015
Louisiana
November 21, 2015
 
Nominee John Bel Edwards David Vitter
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 646,924 505,940
Percentage 56.1% 43.9%

Parish results of the 2015 Louisiana gubernatorial election.
Governor before election

Bobby Jindal
Republican

 Elected Governor

John Bel Edwards
Democratic

The Louisiana gubernatorial election of 2015 was conducted to choose a new Governor of Louisiana. Incumbent Republican Governor Bobby Jindal was not eligible to run for re-election to a third term because of term limits established by the Louisiana Constitution.

Under Louisiana's jungle primary system, all candidates appeared on the same ballot, regardless of party and voters may vote for any candidate, regardless of their party affiliation. As no candidate received a majority of the vote during the primary election on October 24, 2015, a runoff election was held on November 21, 2015 between the top two candidates in the primary. Louisiana is the only state that has a jungle primary system (California and Washington have a similar "top two primary" system).

The runoff election featured Democratic Minority Leader of the Louisiana House of Representatives John Bel Edwards and Republican Senator David Vitter, as they were the top two vote getters in the primary. Lieutenant Governor Jay Dardenne and Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle were eliminated in the jungle primary.

In the runoff, which was held November 21, 2015, Edwards defeated Vitter by a count of 56.1% to 43.9%.[1] Edwards became the first Democrat to win a statewide election in Louisiana since 2008, when Mary Landrieu won her third term in the United States Senate. The election was one of the most expensive in history, with over $50 million spent by candidates and outside groups.[2]

Candidates

Republican Party

Filed

Declined

Democratic Party

Filed

Declined

Independents

Filed

Declined

Endorsements

Jungle primary

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Scott
Angelle (R)		 Jay
Dardenne (R)		 John Bel
Edwards (D)		 John
Kennedy (R)		 Mitch
Landrieu (D)		 David
Vitter (R)		 Other Unde-
cided
MarblePortLLC October 20–21, 2015 1464 ± 3% 12.7% 14.1% 40.5% — — 28.5% — 4.3%
MRI October 15–19, 2015 600 ± ?% 17% 14% 36% — — 19% 2% 12%
Harper Polling (R) October 16–17, 2015 612 ± 3.9% 14% 14% 36% — — 26% — 9%
KPLC/Raycom Media October 7–13, 2015 602 ± 4% 7% 8% 24% — — 21% — 37%
The Advocate/WWL-TV September 20–23, 2015 800 ± 3.46% 15% 14% 24% — — 24% — 18%
Public Policy Polling September 21–22, 2015 616 ± 4% 15% 14% 28% — — 27% — 17%
Verne Kennedy July 27–31, 2015 600 ± 4% 25% 12% 20% — — 22% — 21%
MarblePort June 17, 2015 1415 ± 2.6% 11.1% 10.4% 28.8% — — 34.1% — 15.6%
Verne Kennedy May 27–29, 2015 700 ± 3.5% 17% 12% 29% — — 29% — 13%
SM&O Research May 5, 2015 600 ± 4.0% 6% 17% 25% — — 38% — 16%
MarblePort March 17, 2015 1,071 ± 2.99% 7% 14% 31% — — 34% — 14%
Triumph March 5, 2015 1,655 ± 2.4% 7% 15% 33% — — 35% — 11%
NSO Research* Jan. 10–13, 2015 600 ± 4% 2% 10% 20% 13% — 24% — 32%
SM&O Research Dec. 9–11, 2014 600 ± ? 3.1% 18.6% 25.7% — — 36.3% — 16.3%
Suffolk Oct. 23–26, 2014 500 ± 4% 3% 9.8% 3.8% — 22.6% 31.6% — 29.2%
Multi-Quest Oct. 22–24, 2014 606 ± 4% 2.3% 10.9% 4% — — 25.9% 3.8%[61] 53.1%
SM&O Research April 28–30, 2014 600 ± ? 3.8% 10.5% 5.5% 11.7% 28.9% 28.9% — 10.6%
PSB April 2014 601 ± ? — 14% 17% 8% — 18% 14%[62] 29%
Magellan Mar. 24–26, 2014 600 ± 4.1% — 13.1% 4.6% 8.5% 26.4% 27.6% — 19.8%
V/C Research Feb. 20–25, 2014 600 ± 4% — 11% 8% 9% 33% 25% — 15%
Kitchens Group** Feb. 10–12, 2014 600 ± 4.2% — 9% 21% 7% — 26% — 38%
WPAOR^ Nov. 12–14, 2013 800 ± 3.5% — 12% 2% 9% 20% 25% 11%[63] 11
— 22% — — 29% 35% — 14%
SM&O Research Nov. 6–12, 2013 600 ± 4% 2.1% 18% 7.9% 18.9% — 30.3% — 22.9%
Magellan Oct. 2–4, 2012 2,862 ± 1.9% — 6.5% — 7.2% 29.4% 31.1% 9.1%[64] 16.7%

Results

Louisiana gubernatorial election Jungle Primary, 2015
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic John Bel Edwards 444,517 39.89
Republican David Vitter 256,300 23.00
Republican Scott Angelle 214,982 19.29
Republican Jay Dardenne 166,656 14.96
Democratic Cary Deaton 11,763 1.06
Democratic S.L. Simpson 7,420 0.67
Independent Beryl Billiot 5,694 0.51
Independent Jeremy Odom 4,756 0.43
Independent Eric Orgeron 2,248 0.20
Majority 188,217 16.89
Total votes 1,114,336 100

Runoff

Sign for John Bel Edwards

On November 5, 2015, Lieutenant Governor Jay Dardenne, who finished fourth in the primary election, endorsed Democrat Edwards in the upcoming general election against his intraparty rival, Senator David Vitter. Dardenne made the announcement at "Free Speech Alley" in front of the LSU Student Union building in Baton Rouge.[65] After the primary, polls showed Edwards with a commanding lead over Vitter. Verne Kennedy of Market Research Insight placed Edwards ahead, 54 to 38 percent or 51 to 40 percent, depending on the level of turnout among African-American voters, either 25 or 20 percent, accordingly.[66]

Dardenne's backing of Edwards drew fire from state Republican chairman Roger Villere and Reince Priebus, the chairman of the Republican National Committee, who termed the endorsement a betrayal: "You cannot claim to be a conservative fighter for Louisiana principles and publicly endorse an Obama liberal like Mr. Edwards," the two chairmen wrote. Vitter, who had sought Dardenne's endorsement, said he remains "very excited about our campaign and the tens of thousands of conservative Louisiana voters who have jumped on board in the past week, including so many that voted for Jay. We wish Jay and his family the best."[67]

Third-place contender Scott Angelle never spoke about any role that he would play in the general election, prior to the election.[67]

A debate between Edwards and Vitter was held on November 10 by Louisiana Public Broadcasting and the Council for a Better Louisiana.[68]

Early voting was possible from November 7 until November 14. Despite having one fewer day due to Veterans Day, turnout was significantly higher compared to the primary election early voting, especially among black voters and in urban parishes.[69]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 David
Vitter (R)		 John Bel
Edwards (D)		 Undecided
JMC Analytics November 19, 2015 614 ± 3.9% 43% 47% 10%
RRH Elections November 12–16, 2015 359 ± 5% 42% 48% 10%
JMC Analytics November 14–16, 2015 635 ± 3.9% 35% 51% 13%
JMC Analytics November 14–16, 2015 635 ± 4% 38% 54% 8%
Market Research Insight November 11–14, 2015 600 ± 4% 38% 53% 9%
Hayride/MarblePort November 11, 2015 978 ± 3.1% 42% 48% 10%
Market Research Insight November 11, 2015 600 ± 4% 38% 52% 10%
UNO Survey Research Center November 2–8, 2015 600 ± 4% 34% 56% 10%
Triumph Campaigns November 5, 2015 1,818 ± 3% 41% 49% 10%
WVLA/JMC Analytics October 28–31, 2015 600 ± 4% 32% 52% 16%
Market Research Insight October 27–28, 2015 600 ± 4.1% 38% 54% 8%
Anzalone Liszt Grove October 26–28, 2015 700 ± 3.7% 40% 52% 7%
KPLC/Raycom Media October 7–13, 2015 602 ± 4% 33% 52% ?%
The Advocate/WWL-TV September 20–23, 2015 800 ± 3.46% 41% 45% ?%
Public Policy Polling September 21–22, 2015 616 ± 4% 38% 50% 12%
Public Policy Polling September 25–28, 2014 1,141 ± 2.9% 50% 32% 18%
Public Policy Polling June 26–29, 2014 664 ± 3.8% 52% 30% 17%
The Kitchen Group* February 10–12, 2014 600 ± 4.2% 38% 32% 31%
Public Policy Polling February 6–9, 2014 635 ± 3.9% 51% 30% 19%

*Internal poll for the John Bel Edwards campaign

Edwards' win was the first statewide win for Democrats in Louisiana since Mary Landrieu won a third term to the senate in 2008. His performance was surprisingly well for being a Democrat in Louisiana. He especially performed well in Caddo Parish home of Shreveport, East Baton Rouge Parish home of Baton Rouge, and in the reliably Democratic Orleans Parish home of New Orleans. Turnout was slightly higher in the November run-off than in the October jungle primary.

Louisiana gubernatorial election runoff, 2015
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic John Bel Edwards 646,924 56.1
Republican David Vitter 505,940 43.9
Majority 140,931 12.2
Voter turnout 40.2%
Democratic gain from Republican

See also

References

  1. ↑ ASSOCIATED PRESS (November 22, 2015). "John Bel Edwards Wins Louisiana Gubernatorial Election". The Huffington Post.
  2. ↑ "$50M spent on Louisiana governor race, campaign records show". thenewsstar.com. Retrieved January 22, 2016.
  3. 1 2 Alford, Jeremy (May 6, 2013). "Saved by the Bel?". Gambit. Retrieved May 13, 2013.
  4. ↑ Avery, Cole (October 2, 2014). "Scott Angelle to run for governor in 2015". The Times-Picayune. Retrieved October 2, 2014.
  5. ↑ Adelson, Jeff (March 20, 2013). "Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne 'intends' to run for governor in 2015". The Times-Picayune. Retrieved May 13, 2013.
  6. ↑ "David Vitter Announces Run for Governor". Roll Call. January 21, 2014. Retrieved January 21, 2014.
  7. ↑ O'Donoghue, Julia (April 9, 2015). "State Treasurer John Kennedy will seek reelection, not run for governor or attorney general". The Times-Picayune. Retrieved April 9, 2015.
  8. 1 2 "Jefferson Parish Sheriff Newell Normand not running for governor, says poll in article is months old". NOLA.com. June 9, 2014. Retrieved July 15, 2014.
  9. ↑ "Ag commissioner Mike Strain says he won't run for Louisiana governor". Shreveport Times. July 1, 2013. Retrieved July 2, 2013.
  10. ↑ "Alexander says he may run for Louisiana governor in 2015". The Town Talk. August 13, 2013. Retrieved August 15, 2013.
  11. ↑ Avery, Cole (December 10, 2014). "Angola warden Burl Cain mulling run for governor". The Times-Picayune. Retrieved December 11, 2014.
  12. ↑ Deslatte, Melinda (January 6, 2015). "Angola warden Burl Cain says he might run for La. governor". The Town Talk. Retrieved February 11, 2015.
  13. ↑ "Long weighs bid for governor in 2015". The Advocate. August 11, 2012. Retrieved January 30, 2013.
  14. ↑ Greater New Orleans (December 12, 2013). "Buddy Roemer to spearhead long-term policy initiative ahead of 2015 election". NOLA.com. Retrieved December 18, 2013.
  15. ↑ Adelson, Jeff (February 10, 2013). "John Bel Edwards announces he is running for governor in 2015". The New Orleans Times-Picayune. Retrieved February 21, 2013.
  16. ↑ Greater New Orleans (March 17, 2014). "It's official: Edwin Edwards is running for Congress". NOLA.com. Retrieved March 20, 2014.
  17. ↑ "Landrieu run again? 'Oh Lord, no'". Politico. December 10, 2014. Retrieved December 10, 2014.
  18. ↑ James Carville (July 8, 2014). "James Carville: Four good reasons to watch Louisiana race this season". The Hill. Retrieved January 3, 2015.
  19. ↑ Ballard, Mark (April 27, 2015). "Mitch Landrieu says commitment to New Orleans will keep him out of governor's race". The Advocate. Retrieved April 27, 2015.
  20. ↑ "John Georges is 'monitoring' the Louisiana governor's race, The News-Star reports". Nola.com. August 5, 2015. Retrieved August 5, 2015.
  21. ↑ "Why governor's race could look radically different if New Orleans City Council President Jason Williams jumps in". August 7, 2015. Retrieved August 7, 2015.
  22. ↑ "Louisiana governor's race may draw new Democratic candidate, according to LaPolitics". NOLA. May 22, 2015. Retrieved May 28, 2015.
  23. ↑ "Maginnis: Shaw's Bernhard may consider run for governor". Business Report. July 31, 2012. Retrieved October 4, 2012.
  24. ↑ "Bernhard Making Rounds for Governor". LA Politics. March 3, 2014. Retrieved March 5, 2014.
  25. ↑ "Vitter, Nungesser and Young lead early 2015 poll for governor". Houma Today. November 24, 2014. Retrieved January 3, 2015.
  26. ↑ "Common Sense, Beryl Billiot Governor * 2015 Home".
  27. ↑ "Natchitoches minister makes run for governor". KNOE.com. March 4, 2014. Retrieved March 5, 2014.
  28. ↑ url=http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=218927.0
  29. ↑ Alford, Jeremy (January 5, 2015). "So who isn't in the governor's race?". The Shreveport Times. Retrieved January 11, 2015.
  30. ↑ "Hero general Honore considering run for Louisiana governor". WBRZ.com. November 14, 2012. Retrieved January 30, 2013.
  31. ↑ "Retired Louisiana Lt. General Russell Honore" may run for governor". KTAL-TV. February 19, 2014. Retrieved February 11, 2015.
  32. ↑ Stewart, Robert (February 2, 2015). "Former Katrina pointman Honoré still mulling run for governor". Greater Baton Rouge Business Report. Retrieved February 11, 2015.
  33. ↑ Litten, Kevin (July 1, 2015). "Russel Honore is not running for governor of Louisiana". The Times-Picayune. Retrieved July 1, 2015.
  34. ↑ "Terrebonne GOP endorses Angelle for Governor". Daily Comet.
  35. ↑ "Vitter Angelle Endorsed By Republican Party of East Baton Rouge Parish". My ArkLaMiss.
  36. ↑ "Livingston Parish Republican committee endorses only 1 of 5 incumbents running for council". The Advocate.
  37. ↑ "Publisher Endorses Oct 24 Election". Business Report.
  38. ↑ "The Hayride's Endorsement Symposium: The Governor's Race". The Hayride.
  39. ↑ "Former Miss USA Ali Landry Makes Her Choice For Louisiana Governor". I Agree To See.
  40. ↑ Crisp, Elizabeth (March 13, 2015). "Labor group endorses Edwards in governor's race". The Advocate. Retrieved April 9, 2015.
  41. ↑ "Democratic State Central Committee Announces Endorsements for Governor and Secretary of State Candidates". Louisiana Democrats. March 30, 2015. Retrieved April 9, 2015.
  42. ↑ Sentell, Will (March 11, 2015). "Teachers' union backs John Bel Edwards for governor". The Advocate. Retrieved April 9, 2015.
  43. ↑ Moreau, Andre (October 30, 2015). "Endorsements roll in for Vitter, Edwards during gubernatorial runoff". WAFB. Retrieved November 1, 2015.
  44. ↑ "Troopers endorse Edwards for governor". thenewsstar.com. November 13, 2015.
  45. ↑ Adelson, Jeff (October 30, 2015). "Mayor Landrieu offers low-key endorsement for John Bel Edwards". The Advocate. Retrieved November 2, 2015.
  46. ↑ Hilburn, Greg (September 9, 2015). "Monroe mayor endorses Edwards for governor". The Times. Retrieved November 2, 2015.
  47. ↑ Litten, Kevin (November 5, 2015). "Republican Jay Dardenne endorses Democrat John Bel Edwards for Louisiana governor". The Times-Picayune. Retrieved November 5, 2015.
  48. ↑ "Endorsement: John Bel Edwards for Louisiana governor". Gambit.
  49. ↑ "Vitter Picks Up Endorsement from Gun Rights Group". myarklamiss.com. Retrieved May 30, 2015.
  50. ↑ "Vitter lands LABI nod as expected". thenewsstar.com. November 12, 2015.
  51. ↑ "David Vitter picks up gubernatorial endorsements from Louisiana congressmen Abraham, Fleming". The Advocate. Retrieved April 9, 2015.
  52. ↑ "Boustany endorsing Vitter for La. governor". The Advertiser. Retrieved April 1, 2015.
  53. 1 2 "Boustany, Durel endorse Vitter in his run for governor". KATC.com. Retrieved April 2, 2015.
  54. ↑ "George H.W. Bush backs David Vitter in governor's race". The Daily Advertiser. The Associated Press. Archived from the original on April 9, 2015. Retrieved October 6, 2016.
  55. ↑ O'Donoghue, Julia (April 9, 2015). "Jeb Bush endorses David Vitter in Louisiana governor's race". The Times-Picayune. Retrieved April 9, 2015.
  56. ↑ Boone, Timothy (February 18, 2015). "US Sen Bill Cassidy endorses David Vitter for governor". The Advocate. Retrieved April 9, 2015.
  57. ↑ O'Donoghue, Julia (January 8, 2015). "Chris Christie sends fundraising letter for David Vitter". The Times-Picayune. Retrieved February 10, 2015.
  58. ↑ "Fleming endorses Vitter for Governor". KTBS-TV. Archived from the original on March 21, 2015. Retrieved March 21, 2015.
  59. ↑ "Vitter picks up backing from treasurer in governor's race". WBRZ. Retrieved May 5, 2015.
  60. ↑ Camia, Catalina (February 10, 2015). "Rand Paul endorses David Vitter for Louisiana governor". USA Today. Retrieved February 10, 2015.
  61. ↑ Foster Campbell (D)
  62. ↑ Newell Normand (R) 10%, Mike Strain (R) 4%
  63. ↑ Rodney Alexander (R) 4%, Foster Campbell (D) 2%, John Georges (D) 2%, Jim Bernhard (D) 1%, Gerald Long (R) 1%, Newell Normand (R) 1%
  64. ↑ John Georges (D) 6%, Mike Strain (R) 3.1%
  65. ↑ Greg Hilburn (November 5, 2015). "Republican Dardenne endorses Democrat Edwards". The Shreveport Times.
  66. ↑ "Three polls show John Bel Edwards leading David Vitter in stunning turn of events surrounding governor's race". The Baton Rouge Advocate. November 3, 2015. Retrieved November 5, 2015.
  67. 1 2 Greg Hilburn (November 5, 2015). "Dardenne endorses Edwards, called traitor by GOP". The Shreveport Times. Retrieved November 6, 2015.
  68. ↑ "Vitter, Edwards face-off in first televised gubernatorial runoff debate". WWLTV. November 11, 2015.
  69. ↑ "Decision 2015: Runoff Early Voting "Post Game Report"". JMC Enterprises of Louisiana/JMC Analytics and Polling. November 15, 2015.

External links

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