Redskins Rule

The Redskins Rule is a spurious relationship^[1] in which the results of National Football League (NFL) games correlated strongly with the results of subsequent United States presidential elections. Briefly stated, there was a high correlation between the outcome of the last Washington Redskins home football game prior to the U.S. presidential election and the outcome of the election: when the Redskins win, the party of the incumbent president retains the presidency; when the Redskins lose, the opposition party wins. This coincidence was noted by many sports and political commentators, used as a bellwether to predict the results of elections, and held true in every election from 1940 through 2000. A variant of the Redskins Rule was contrived to maintain the correlation through the 2008 election (under the original formulation, it would have failed in 2004), after which it failed completely in the 2012 election, and later, the 2016 election.

History

The Redskins relocated from Boston, Massachusetts to Washington, D.C. in 1937. Since then, there have been 19 presidential elections. In 17 of those, the following rule applied:

If the Redskins win their last home game before the election, the party that won the previous election wins the next election and that if the Redskins lose, the challenging party's candidate wins.

The Redskins Rule was first noticed prior to the 2000 election by Steve Hirdt, executive vice president of the Elias Sports Bureau.^[2][3][4] That year, the Redskins would begin what would become a four-game losing streak with retrospect to the rule when they lost to the Tennessee Titans. George W. Bush defeated Al Gore in the Electoral College, but lost the popular vote. This would cause problems for the original version of the rule after the 2004 election.^[4]

In 2004 election, the Redskins lost their last home game before the presidential election, indicating that the incumbent should have lost. However, President George W. Bush (the incumbent) went on to defeat John Kerry. Steve Hirdt modified the rule, establishing Redskins Rule 2.0:^[5]

When the popular vote winner does not win the election, the impact of the Redskins game on the subsequent presidential election gets flipped.

In the election in 2000, Al Gore won the popular vote while Bush won the electoral vote, and thereby the revised Redskins Rule was upheld for the 2004 election.

In the 2008 election, the Redskins lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers, predicting a win for U.S. Senator from Illinois Barack Obama over U.S. Senator from Arizona John McCain, because George W. Bush won the popular vote in the previous election.^[6]

Prior to the 2012 election, the Redskins lost against the Carolina Panthers on November 4. The Redskins Rule predicted an outright loss for incumbent Barack Obama against challenger Mitt Romney, or that Obama would lose the popular vote and still win the Electoral College.^[7] However, incumbent Barack Obama won the election with 332 electoral votes to Romney's 206,^[8] held the advantage in the popular vote by more than 4.7 million votes, and the Redskins Rule did not hold in 2012.

In 2016, the Redskins played their last designated home game prior to the election on October 16, defeating the Philadelphia Eagles 27–20. This outcome predicted a victory for Hillary Clinton of the Democratic Party, which was in power. Her loss to Republican challenger Donald Trump in the election meant that the Redskins Rule did not hold in 2016.

The rule typically does not count the team's time playing in Boston (1932–1936). The team competed as the Boston Braves in 1932 when they won 19–6 over the Staten Island Stapletons. This game does not conform to the rule, as Franklin D. Roosevelt defeated incumbent Herbert Hoover in that election. However, in 1936, the first election year the team competed under its current nickname, they defeated the Chicago Cardinals and the incumbent Democratic president, Roosevelt, went on to win re-election.

Results

Notes

1. ↑ Upheld under revised rule
2. ↑ Competed as the Boston Redskins
3. ↑ Competed as the Boston Braves

See also

• Mierscheid law
• Correlation does not imply causation

References

1. ↑ Bruce, Peter C. (2014-12-03). Introductory Statistics and Analytics: A Resampling Perspective. John Wiley & Sons. p. xvii. ISBN 9781118881668. 
2. ↑ Hofheimer, Bill (October 30, 2012). "'Redskins Rule': MNF's Hirdt on intersection of football & politics". ESPN. Retrieved October 16, 2016. 
3. ↑ Manker, Rob (November 7, 2012). "Redskins Rule: Barack Obama's victory over Mitt Romney tackles presidential predictor for its first loss.". Chicago Tribune. Retrieved November 8, 2012. 
4. 1 2 Pohl, Robert S. (2013-08-20). Urban Legends & Historic Lore of Washington,. The History Press. pp. 78–80. ISBN 9781625846648. 
5. ↑ Katzowitz, Josh (November 1, 2012). "A Redskins victory vs. Panthers means Obama wins, loss means Romney wins.". CBS News. Retrieved November 8, 2012. 
6. ↑ "Obama elected after Redskins omen.". BBC News. November 5, 2012. Retrieved November 8, 2012. 
7. ↑ Krieg, Gregory J. (November 5, 2012). "'Redskins Rule' Points to Romney Victory.". ABC News. Retrieved November 8, 2012. 
8. ↑ "President Barack Obama wins Florida, topping Romney in final electoral vote tally 332 to 206.". Washington Post. November 10, 2012. Retrieved November 10, 2012.