Pre-election pendulum for the Victorian state election, 2014

The following is a Mackerras pendulum for the upcoming Victorian state election, 2014.

The margins are notional figures, calculated by Antony Green for the Victorian Electoral Commission following a redistribution of Victoria's electoral boundaries in 2013. Four seats (Bellarine, Monbulk, Ripon and Yan Yean) are held by the Labor Party, but the redistributed boundaries have made them notionally Liberal-held.[1]

"Very safe" seats require a swing of over 20 per cent to change, "safe" seats require a swing of 10 to 20 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.

GOVERNMENT SEATS
Marginal
Wendouree New seat LIB 0.1%
Yan Yean Danielle Green (ALP) LIB 0.1%
Carrum Donna Bauer LIB 0.3%
Bentleigh Elizabeth Miller LIB 0.9%
Monbulk James Merlino (ALP) LIB 1.1%
Mordialloc Lorraine Wreford LIB 1.5%
Ripon Joe Helper (ALP) LIB 1.6%
Bellarine Lisa Neville (ALP) LIB 2.5%
Forest Hill Neil Angus LIB 3.5%
Prahran Clem Newton-Brown LIB 4.7%
South Barwon Andrew Katos LIB 4.9%
Fairly safe
Burwood Graham Watt LIB 6.3%
Ringwood New seat LIB 6.3%
Bayswater Heidi Victoria LIB 6.8%
Eildon New seat LIB 7.7%
Mount Waverley Michael Gidley LIB 8.6%
Gembrook Brad Battin LIB 8.8%
Box Hill Robert Clark LIB 9.4%
Hastings Neale Burgess LIB 9.6%
Caulfield David Southwick LIB 9.8%
Safe
Ferntree Gully Nick Wakeling LIB 11.5%
South-West Coast Denis Napthine LIB 11.9%
Croydon New seat LIB 12.2%
Bass Ken Smith LIB 12.4%
Evelyn Christine Fyffe LIB 12.6%
Rowville New seat LIB 13.1%
Morwell Russell Northe NAT 13.3%
Euroa New seat NAT 13.6%
Nepean Martin Dixon LIB 13.7%
Polwarth Terry Mulder LIB 13.8%
Brighton Louise Asher LIB 14.3%
Mildura Peter Crisp NAT 14.5%
Bulleen Nick Kotsiras LIB 15.1%
Sandringham Murray Thompson LIB 15.6%
Kew Andrew McIntosh LIB 15.7%
Benambra Bill Tilley LIB 15.9%
Narracan Gary Blackwood LIB 16.0%
Mornington David Morris LIB 16.2%
Hawthorn Ted Baillieu LIB 16.6%
Warrandyte Ryan Smith LIB 17.2%
Ovens Valley New seat NAT 19.2%
Very safe
Malvern Michael O'Brien LIB 20.5%
Lowan Hugh Delahunty NAT 21.9%
Gippsland South Peter Ryan NAT 22.5%
Gippsland East Tim Bull NAT 23.1%
Shepparton Jeanette Powell NAT 25.9%
Murray Plains New seat NAT 30.2%
INDEPENDENT SEATS − Coalition confidence and supply
Frankston Geoff Shaw IND v ALP 2.1%
NON-GOVERNMENT SEATS
Marginal
Eltham Steve Herbert ALP 0.8%
Albert Park Martin Foley ALP 0.9%
Cranbourne Jude Perera ALP 1.1%
Buninyong New seat ALP 1.6%
Ivanhoe Anthony Carbines ALP 1.8%
Macedon Joanne Duncan ALP 2.3%
Mulgrave Daniel Andrews ALP 2.4%
Bendigo West Maree Edwards ALP 3.1%
Bendigo East Jacinta Allan ALP 3.2%
Brunswick Jane Garrett ALP v GRN 3.6%
Geelong Ian Trezise ALP 4.0%
Essendon Justin Madden ALP 4.3%
Niddrie Ben Carroll ALP 4.5%
Melbourne Jennifer Kanis ALP v GRN 4.7%
Narre Warren North Luke Donnellan ALP 4.8%
Fairly safe
Oakleigh Ann Barker ALP 5.1%
Richmond Richard Wynne ALP v GRN 6.4%
Sunbury New seat ALP 6.5%
Narre Warren South Judith Graley ALP 7.4%
Keysborough New seat ALP 9.5%
Safe
Northcote Fiona Richardson ALP v GRN 10.3%
Bundoora Colin Brooks ALP 10.9%
Tarneit Tim Pallas ALP 11.0%
Werribee New seat ALP 11.4%
Sydenham New seat ALP 11.5%
Altona Jill Hennessy ALP 12.4%
Clarinda New seat ALP 12.4%
Williamstown Wade Noonan ALP 13.2%
Melton Don Nardella ALP 13.6%
Lara John Eren ALP 13.8%
Dandenong John Pandazopoulos ALP 14.0%
St Albans New seat ALP 14.0%
Footscray Marsha Thomson ALP 15.9%
Yuroke Liz Beattie ALP 16.0%
Mill Park Lily D'Ambrosio ALP 16.0%
Kororoit Marlene Kairouz ALP 17.5%
Pascoe Vale Christine Campbell ALP 18.5%
Broadmeadows Frank McGuire ALP 20.0%
Very safe
Preston Robin Scott ALP 20.2%
Thomastown Bronwyn Halfpenny ALP 21.6%

See also

References

  1. ↑ Green, Antony. "2013 Victorian Redistribution: Analysis of New Electoral Boundaries" (PDF). Retrieved 14 October 2014.
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