Doctrine of chances

For the 18th-century book on probability theory, see The Doctrine of Chances.

Evidence
Part of the common law series
Types of evidence
Testimony Documentary Real (physical) Digital Exculpatory Inculpatory Demonstrative Eyewitness identification Genetic (DNA) Lies
Relevance
Burden of proof Laying a foundation Materiality Public policy exclusions Spoliation Character Habit Similar fact
Authentication
Chain of custody Judicial notice Best evidence rule Self-authenticating document Ancient document Hague Evidence Convention
Witnesses
Competence Privilege Direct examination Cross-examination Redirect Impeachment Recorded recollection Expert witness Dead Man's Statute
Hearsay and exceptions
in English law in United States law Confessions Business records Excited utterance Dying declaration Party admission Ancient document Declaration against interest Present sense impression Res gestae Learned treatise Implied assertion
Other common law areas
Contract Tort Property Wills, trusts and estates Criminal law

In law, the doctrine of chances is a rule of evidence that allows evidence to show that it is unlikely a defendant would be repeatedly, innocently involved in similar, suspicious circumstances.

Normally, under Federal Rule of Evidence 404, evidence of other crimes, wrongs, or acts is not admissible to prove the character of a person in order to show action in conformity therewith.

Using the doctrine of chances allows a prosecutor to admit evidence of prior "accidents" that can persuade a jury that prior incidents are so similar that it is very improbable that the case at bar is actually accidental.

The doctrine of chances was first developed by English courts in the case Rex v. Smith, 11 Cr. App. R. 229, 84 L.J.K.B. 2153 (1915), better known as the "brides in the bath murder". In this case the defendant was accused of murdering his wife by drowning her in a bath. The defendant claimed that his wife had fainted in the bath. The prosecutor sought to include evidence in the trial that the defendant's two previous wives had both died in the same way. The evidence was allowed.

References

United States v. Tyndale, 56 M.J. 209, 213 (C.A.A.F. 2001)
Federal Rule of Evidence 404

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